Saturday, May 19, 2012

What oh what are the Twins to do?

Matt_Capps_Minnesota_Twins What are the Twins to do? The question seems to come up every year about this time: Are the Twins going to be buyers or sellers? And if they are going to be buyers, how big of a move will they make? The easy answer is they’ll make some rink-a-dink move, as they do pretty much every year. But they have also made moves that appear to be “blah”, that end up as difference makers.

The issue with the 2011 Twins? They don’t have enough assets OR room to add any players…outside of the bullpen. For now, let’s focus on the bullpen first as it’s pretty damn clear it’s the #1 priority. There isn't a single pitcher in the Twins bullpen that scares hitters of GOOD ball clubs. Joe Nathan appears to be on his way back towards this level, and Glen Perkins has be great, but we all know how far that has gotten us against the Yankees…

Without pretending I know more about who’s available and what prospects the Twins would trade, I’ll keep it simple. First, we NEED to trade an outfielder. Which outfielder has the most value? Michael Cuddyer. Do I want the Twins to trade Cuddy? Yes…but strictly for business purposes. We killed ourselves not dealing “Mr. Twin” Torii Hunter...and we can’t afford to lose an asset for nothing. So yes, if the perfect offer comes along from the Phillies or Red Sox, we take it. NO WAY Cuddyer signs here for a major discount…maybe a small discount…but not a large discount. There are a lot of teams that will pay major bucks for a guy like Cuddyer.

The next valued outfielder is Jason Kubel. He’s relatively cheap and is a power left-handed bat that can hold his own in the field. I don’t think the Twins trade him because they can keep him for cheap, compared to Cuddyer’s utility value. After Kubel comes Denard Span. I think the Twins are starting to see what type of player Ben Revere is becoming…and that’s an average singles hitter who can cover ground. That’s about it. His speed is nice, but his arm is TERRIBLE. Denard is fast, patient at the plate and can still cover ground. I think Revere is going to be a great leadoff hitter, but I don’t think he’ll get to Denard’s level. With that said, I don’t think we’d get enough in return for Span because of how valuable he’ll be to the Twins (more on that later).

That leaves us with Delmon Young. I know, I’ve been saying “TRADED DELMON” for years…but we already blew our chance to get top notch talent back, but he’s still under performing for what the Twins gave up to get him. It’s time to cut the ties before he goes on another massive slump. There has to be a team out there willing to over pay for a “young outfielder with potential”. That potential would have shown by now…so let Delmon be someone else’s project. I say we get two or three prospects for DY and open up some room for our other outfielders. Maybe we package Kevin Slowey in the deal too and give a contender in the NL some tools to fill some holes…we HAVE to make this move IF it presents itself. Come to think of it, if someone comes calling about Alexi Casilla and we can land a solid second basemen in another deal…we do it. I’d love a guy who’s more reliable to play second base AND hit in the number two hole. But for now, let’s assume no one inquires about Casilla.

As for the bullpen, we need to option about three or four of them down and get two quality set up guys back in return. Throw Matt Capps in to one of those deals and eat some of his salary, and get a solid right hander AND left hander back. Burnett, Mijares, Hayes, etc etc aren’t going to get it done. Perkins + Nathan is a great start…and you only need three to four solid relief guys down the stretch to salvage some wins that most teams give away. While most teams will try and upgrade their starting rotation and their offense, the Twins should take advantage of available relief guys. The down side: You always over pay for relief pitching…but it’s worth the risk to THIS Twins ball club.

The Twins will most likely not make a trade to their offense due to the players we are getting back from the DL this week. Most years, this is a terrible excuse to not make a trade…and while the Twins have gotten to the playoffs taking this approach, they also appear to be one or two guys away from beating the Yankees in the Divisional Series. So, assuming they DON’T make a trade to bolster their offense…here is how I’d like to see their everyday lineup once they are 100% healthy (obviously assuming there aren’t further injuries):

Versus righthanders:
1. Span – CF
2. Mauer – C
3. Cuddyer – RF
4. Morneau – 1B
5. Kubel – DH
6. Valencia – 3B
7. Casilla – 2B
8. Nishioka – SS
9. Revere – LF

Versus left handers:
1. Span – CF
2. Casilla – 2B
3. Mauer – C
4. Morneau – 1B
5. Cuddyer – RF
6. Kuble – DH
7. Valencia – 3B
8. Nishioka – SS
9. Revere – LF

This leave Thome and Plouffe as the top pinch hitting options, while Butera, Repko and gang are there for defensive replacements. If this lineup plays to it’s potential, the starting pitching continues to do its thing, AND the Twins upgrade their bullpen…it could be an exciting race to the finish line.